Bird Survey Data Flawed

Most of what we know about bird populations stems from surveys conducted by professional biologists and amateur birdwatchers, but new research from North Carolina State University shows that the data from those surveys may be seriously flawed – and proposes possible means to resolve the problem.

VCE's Mountain Birdwatch is currently being redesigned with biostatistical help from NC State and others to help overcome these potential problems in the future.

Bird populations are the focus of thousands of environmental research and monitoring programs around the world. A group of researchers led by NC State's Dr. Theodore Simons has been evaluating factors that confound estimates of bird abundance. For example, background noise can influence the ability of observers to detect birds on population surveys, and can result in underestimates of true population size.

In order to explore these questions, Simons and others worked to develop "Bird Radio:" a series of remotely controlled playback devices that can be used to accurately mimic a population of singing birds. Researchers could then control variables, such as background noise, to see whether it affected birdwatchers' ability to estimate bird populations.

The study found that even small amounts of background noise, from rustling leaves or automobile traffic, led to a 40 percent decrease in the ability of observers to detect singing birds. What's more, said Simons, "we also learned that misidentification rates increased with the number of individuals and species encountered by observers at a census point." In other words, the researchers found that traditional means of estimating the abundance and diversity of bird species are flawed due to complications such as background noise and the accuracy of the data observers collect on surveys of breeding birds.

But the Bird Radio research also points the way toward possible solutions. Simons explains that the Bird Radio findings are helping researchers develop better sampling methods and statistical models that will provide more accurate bird population estimates. For example, researchers are attempting to identify data collection methods that will help account for background noise or other outside factors in estimating bird populations.

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The research, "Sources of Measurement Error, Misclassification Error, and Bias in Auditory Avian Point Count Data," is published in the upcoming book "Modeling Demographic Processes in Marked Populations Series: Environmental and Ecological Statistics, Vol. 3" (Springer, 2009). Simons, a professor of biology and forestry at NC State and an assistant unit leader of the U.S. Geological Survey's North Carolina Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit, was the lead author of the study. The research was co-authored by Dr. Kenneth H. Pollock, professor of biology and statistics at NC State; John M. Wettroth, an engineer with Maxim Integrated Products; Dr. Mathew W. Alldredge, who was a research associate at NC State; and Krishna Pacifici and Jerome Brewster, who were both graduate students in biology at NC State.

Vermont Christmas Bird Counts Need You!

Would you like to help with a Christmas Bird Count near you? The 109th Christmas Bird Count will run from December 14th through January 5th. Last year, thousands of volunteers counted nearly 60 million birds across the Americas and beyond. Each count occurs in a designated circle, 15 miles in diameter, and is led by an experienced birder, or designated “compiler”. You can see a list of all of the Vermont CBCs with dates, locations and compiler contact information at Vermont eBird.

The longest running Citizen Science program in the world, the count originally began on Christmas Day in 1900 when ornithologist and legendary birder Frank Chapman posed an alternative to an earlier traditional holiday "side hunt." Chapman proposed “hunting” birds to record their numbers. Instead of firing a shotgun, now we have an annual snapshot. Decades of data have added up to results envied by other scientists who don’t enjoy such a fleet of volunteer help, or creatures as easily seen and counted as birds.

While there is a specific methodology to the CBC and you need to count birds within an existing Christmas Bird Count circle, everyone can participate! If you are a beginning birder, you will be able to join a group that includes at least one experienced birdwatcher. If your home is within the boundaries of a Christmas Bird Count circle, then you can stay home and report the birds that visit your feeder or join a group of birdwatchers in the field. If you have never been on a CBC before and you want to participate in a count this year, including feeder counting, please contact your count compiler prior to the count.

Vermont father and son join forces to solve a high-flying mystery in Andes

NORWICH, Vt. - It's a surprise to learn that the white-winged Diuca finch nests directly on glacial ice in the high Andes. The first research detailing the small bird's frigid breeding habits was recently published in the Wilson Journal of Ornithology.

An even bigger surprise is the academic affiliation of one of the two authors of the scientific paper. Rather than the usual prestigious university, it's the Marion W. Cross Elementary School in this picturesque town on the Connecticut River.

Spencer P. Hardy, now 14, had yet to enter sixth grade when he joined forces with his father, Douglas R. Hardy - a climatologist with the University of Massachusetts-Amherst - to solve the mystery of bird nests on Peru's forbidding Quelccaya Ice Cap.

Read more.....

Revised Theory Suggests Carbon Dioxide Levels Already in Danger Zone

If climate disasters are to be averted, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) must be reduced below the levels that already exist today, according to a study published in Open Atmospheric Science Journal by a group of 10 scientists from the United States, the United Kingdom and France.

The authors assert that to maintain a planet similar to that on which civilization developed, an optimum CO2 level would be less than 350 ppm — a dramatic change from most previous studies, which suggested a danger level for CO2 is likely to be 450 ppm or higher. Atmospheric CO2 is currently 385 parts per million (ppm) and is increasing by about 2 ppm each year from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) and from the burning of forests.

“This work and other recent publications suggest that we have reached CO2 levels that compromise the stability of the polar ice sheets,” said author Mark Pagani, Yale professor of geology and geophysics. “How fast ice sheets and sea level will respond are still poorly understood, but given the potential size of the disaster, I think it’s best not to learn this lesson firsthand.”

Atmospheric CO2 if coal emissions are phased out linearly between 2010 and 2030, calculated using a version of the Bern carbon cycle model.

The statement is based on improved data on the Earth’s climate history and ongoing observations of change, especially in the polar regions. The authors use evidence of how the Earth responded to past changes of CO2 along with more recent patterns of climate changes to show that atmospheric CO2 has already entered a danger zone.

According to the study, coal is the largest source of atmospheric CO2 and the one that would be most practical to eliminate. Oil resources already may be about half depleted, depending upon the magnitude of undiscovered reserves, and it is still not practical to capture CO2 emerging from vehicle tailpipes, the way it can be with coal-burning facilities, note the scientists. Coal, on the other hand, has larger reserves, and the authors conclude that “the only realistic way to sharply curtail CO2 emissions is phase out coal use except where CO2 is captured and sequestered.”

In their model, with coal emissions phased out between 2010 and 2030, atmospheric CO2 would peak at 400-425 ppm and then slowly decline. The authors maintain that the peak CO2 level reached would depend on the accuracy of oil and gas reserve estimates and whether the most difficult to extract oil and gas is left in the ground.

The authors suggest that reforestation of degraded land and improved agricultural practices that retain soil carbon could lower atmospheric CO2 by as much as 50 ppm. They also dismiss the notion of “geo-engineering” solutions, noting that the price of artificially removing 50 ppm of CO2 from the air would be about $20 trillion.

While they note the task of moving toward an era beyond fossil fuels is Herculean, the authors conclude that it is feasible when compared with the efforts that went into World War II and that “the greatest danger is continued ignorance and denial, which could make tragic consequences unavoidable.”

“There is a bright side to this conclusion” said lead author James Hansen of Columbia University, “Following a path that leads to a lower CO2 amount, we can alleviate a number of problems that had begun to seem inevitable, such as increased storm intensities, expanded desertification, loss of coral reefs, and loss of mountain glaciers that supply fresh water to hundreds of millions of people.”

In addition to Hansen and Pagani, authors of the paper are Robert Berner from Yale University; Makiko Sato and Pushker Kharecha from the NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University Earth Institute; David Beerling from the University of Sheffield, UK; Valerie Masson-Delmotte from CEA-CNRS-Universite de Versaille, France Maureen Raymo from Boston University; Dana Royer from Wesleyan University and James C. Zachos from the University of California at Santa Cruz.

Citation: Open Atmospheric Science Journal, Volume 2, 217-231 (2008)

NY State Buys Lands with Bicknell's Thrush

New York state has bought 20,000 acres in the northeast Adirondacks including 3,820-foot Lyon Mountain, home to breeding Bicknell's Thrush, for almost $10 million. Read more about it...

An Interview with E.O. Wilson

Read the interview With E.O. Wilson, the Father of the Encyclopedia of Life, conducted by David Pogue for the CBS Sunday Morning show run on October 19, 2008.